Online betting odds makers used to be extremely sensitive to injuries in the NFL and how those injuries could affect the outcome of a game. But what was happening was that the action on a particular game was begin skewed based on the perceived value of a player to a team. For example, if the Ravens’ running back was injured for a game or two and the perception was that he was a key piece of the offense, then the action would be heavy against the Ravens and the line would change to reflect that.

It did not take long for the price per head bookie experts to catch on to the way that injuries affected action and the appropriate measures have been taken to adjust the odds based on reality rather than perception. For example, if Aaron Rodgers is injured and cannot play, then that definitely will affect the outcome of the game. Rodgers is extremely valuable to the Packers and there is a history of the Packers being unable to win without Aaron Rodgers. But if the quarterback for the Buffalo Bills, whoever that may be at the time, is injured then that will not swing the results of the game even though the perception that an injured quarterback is significant.

It is that balance that odds makers try to keep in order to avoid a betonline scam. If the Bills are -7 in their first game without their starting quarterback, then the fact that the quarterback is out of the game is not going to push those odds to -10. The odds will stay the same to avoid giving the Bills an unfair advantage in the odds. It is just one way that betting experts try to keep the playing field level by using realistic information to create odds rather than public perception.

As week 15 approaches in the NFL season, the sports betting world is trying to determine which teams can pull off late-season upsets and which teams are solid heading into the playoffs. There are several matchups that could make for some very interesting football games this weekend for fans all over the country. Let’s take a look at some of the price per head sports upsets that could be happening in the NFL this weekend.

New England Patriots (-6) @ Denver Broncos

Let’s look at reality in this game first. The Patriots’ offense is the best in the NFL, but it has been giving up turnovers lately. The Denver defense has been taking the ball away and stopping even the opposing offense. However, the Broncos’ defense has not faced anything quite like the Patriots yet this season. The Patriots’ defense is awful and could make a technically-challenged quarterback like Tim Tebow look good. Then you throw in that whole Tebow magic thing and you have one of the more surprising NFL scores of the week.

Pick: Denver Broncos

New York Jets @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

It isn’t clear whether or not the Jets will make the playoffs this year. But the Jets’ defense should be more than able to handle the Philadelphia offense. The Jets will use its running game to score points and squeak out a win in this one.

Pick: New York Jets

Tennessee Titans (-6 ½) @ Indianapolis Colts

A lot of NFL fans and analysts refuse to believe that the Indianapolis Colts could be only the second team in NFL history to go 0-16. The Titans have to choose between a battered Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback, or a rookie Jake Locker. Either decision will allow the Colts to focus on stopping the run and allowing the Colts’ offense to put up just enough points to win this game.

Pick: Indianapolis Colts